Don Davis*
Laurie Buckhout
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 59% fundamentals, 16% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | 45.33% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 43.53% |
| Other Option | 9.06% |
| Tom Bailey | 2.09% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Laurie Buckhout | 43.00% |
| Don Davis | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
| Tom Bailey | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Davis | 51.00% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 41.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laurie Buckhout | $4,663,052 | $3,257,955 | $829,003 | $2,807,131 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Don Davis | $5,805,482 | $5,250,506 | $427,372 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
