Sarah Garriott
Zach Nunn*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | 47.00% |
| Zach Nunn | 40.00% |
| Other | 12.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | 53.00% |
| Zach Nunn | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jennifer Konfrst | 44.00% |
| Zach Nunn | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | $8,070,402 | $6,916,812 | $33,739 | $6,461 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Zach Nunn | $6,123,740 | $5,555,815 | $30,364 | $756,318 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
