Mike Simpson*
Ellie Gilbreath
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Simpson | 46.00% |
| Ellie Gilbreath | 31.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
| Emre Houser | 5.00% |
| Tripp Hutchinson | 5.00% |
| Will Johanson | 2.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Simpson | $1,409,212 | $1,213,827 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
| Elinor Gilbreath | $169,226 | $132,510 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
