Jahana Hayes*
Chris Shea
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jahana Hayes | 51.00% |
| Chris Shea | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jahana Hayes | $1,716,462 | $1,102,716 | $140 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Chris Shea | $465,963 | $412,195 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
