ForecastLast updated Oct 27, 10:12 AM
How this forecast works: read the DDHQ forecast methodology.
Below is a list of all 36 governor forecasts Decision Desk HQ is tracking in the 2026 election. States are listed in order of competitiveness, with the closest races at the top.
| State | DemocraticRepublican | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 54% | Toss Up |
| Georgia | 57% | Toss Up |
| Ohio | 62% | Lean D |
| Alaska | 64% | Lean D |
| Kansas | 68% | Lean R |
| Florida | 69% | Lean R |
| Texas | 70% | Lean R |
| Iowa | 71% | Lean D |
| New Hampshire | 71% | Lean R |
| Wisconsin | 71% | Lean D |
| Arizona | 74% | Lean D |
| South Carolina | 74% | Lean R |
| Michigan | 76% | Likely D |
| Nebraska | 79% | Likely R |
| Oregon | 81% | Likely D |
| Maine | 83% | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 86% | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 90% | Likely D |
| Connecticut | 92% | Likely D |
| New York | 92% | Likely D |
| Alabama | 93% | Likely R |
| Colorado | 93% | Likely D |
| Tennessee | 93% | Likely R |
| Vermont | 93% | Likely R |
| Illinois | 94% | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania | 95% | Safe D |
| Oklahoma | 96% | Safe R |
| Rhode Island | 96% | Safe D |
| California | 97% | Safe D |
| South Dakota | 97% | Safe R |
| Arkansas | 98% | Safe R |
| Hawaii | 99% | Safe D |
| Massachusetts | 99% | Safe D |
| Idaho | >99% | Safe R |
| Maryland | >99% | Safe D |
| Wyoming | >99% | Safe R |
