Glenn Grothman*
Brad Smith
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Glenn Grothman | 61.00% |
| Brad Smith | 39.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brad Smith | $322,261 | $230,958 | $19 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
| Glenn S. Grothman | $1,193,555 | $1,115,972 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Glenn Grothman | $865,241 | $584,128 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
