Rebecca Cooke
Derrick Van Orden*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 50.00% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 50.00% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 49.00% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rebecca Cooke | $12,675,997 | $12,238,749 | $102,129 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Derrick Van Orden | $9,101,596 | $8,452,731 | $174,450 | $2,027,487 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
