Bryan Steil*
Mitchell Berman
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Bryan Steil | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bryan Steil | 48.00% |
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bryan Steil | 49.00% |
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Berman | $1,977,099 | $1,625,541 | $212,983 | $525,456 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Bryan Steil | $6,393,553 | $6,369,119 | - | $64,618 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
