ForecastLast updated Oct 27, 1:52 PM
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez*
John Braun
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John Braun | 43.00% |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John Braun | 46.00% |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John Braun | 43.00% |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | $9,472,267 | $9,264,207 | $14,831 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 John Braun | $3,089,962 | $2,418,043 | $20,000 | $582,336 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
