Alex Mealer
Leticia Gutierrez
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alex Mealer | 48.00% |
| Leticia Gutierrez | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alex Mealer | 48.00% |
| Leticia Gutierrez | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alex Mealer | 45.00% |
| Leticia Gutierrez | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Mealer | $2,782,240 | $2,580,968 | $4,848,412 | $362,126 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Leticia Gutierrez | $215,053 | $104,161 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
