Henry Cuellar*
Tano Tijerina
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | 54.00% |
| Tano Tijerina | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | 45.00% |
| Tano Tijerina | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Marlon Duran | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tano Tijerina | 46.00% |
| Henry Cuellar | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Henry Cuellar | $3,043,039 | $2,433,767 | $194,567 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Tano Tijerina | $1,862,407 | $1,749,357 | - | $471,766 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
