Brandon Herrera
Katy Stout
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Katy Stout | 46.00% |
| Brandon Herrera | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera | 42.00% |
| Katy Stout | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 18.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Herrera | $3,115,205 | $2,804,434 | $634,268 | $416,074 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
| Katy Padilla Stout | $1,117,715 | $973,291 | - | $173,252 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
