Bill Hagerty*
Marquita Bradshaw
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 58.00% |
| Marquita Bradshaw | 33.00% |
| Generic Independent | 5.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bill Hagerty | $17,226,961 | $12,325,565 | $1,842,489 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Marquita Bradshaw | $74,923 | $66,671 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
