Marty Jackley
Nicole Gronli
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | 60.00% |
| Nicole Gronli | 32.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | 47.00% |
| Nicole Gronli | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nicole Gronli | $421,803 | $399,312 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Marty Jackley | $1,737,520 | $687,379 | $149,680 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
