Russell Fry*
John Vincent
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Russell Fry | 41.00% |
| John Vincent | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 22.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Vincent | $640,419 | $570,071 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Russell Fry | $1,985,244 | $2,387,239 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
