Seth Magaziner*
Victor Mellor
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Seth Magaziner | 55.18% |
| Victor Mellor | 39.12% |
| Other Option | 5.70% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Seth Magaziner | 51.00% |
| Victor Mellor | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seth Magaziner | $1,612,495 | $909,266 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Victor Mellor | $3,885,929 | $3,841,576 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
