ForecastLast updated Oct 27, 1:52 PM
Paige Cognetti
Robert Bresnahan*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 48.68% |
| Robert Bresnahan | 45.46% |
| Other Option | 5.86% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 50.00% |
| Robert Bresnahan | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 52.00% |
| Robert Bresnahan | 48.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paige Cognetti | $7,502,359 | $7,258,687 | $201,988 | $56,063 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Robert Bresnahan | $6,519,139 | $5,839,568 | - | $2,714,322 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
