Robert Brooks
Ryan Mackenzie*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Robert Brooks | 48.65% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 43.94% |
| Other Option | 7.41% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Robert Brooks | 48.00% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Robert Brooks | 41.00% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robert Brooks | $5,347,353 | $4,605,775 | $2,605,465 | $321,235 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Ryan Mackenzie | $5,296,664 | $4,329,911 | $23 | $595,035 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
| Bob Brooks | $1,171,181 | $918,818 | $1,307,542 | $321,212 | PRE-PRIMARY | 4/29/2026 |
