Stephanie Bice*
Jena Nelson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Stephanie Bice | 48.00% |
| Jena Nelson | 43.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jena Nelson | $821,989 | $713,446 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Stephanie Bice | $2,476,529 | $2,438,488 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
