Mike Carey*
Don Leonard
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 61% fundamentals, 14% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Leonard | 48.00% |
| Mike Carey | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Don Leonard | 46.00% |
| Mike Carey | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Carey | 37.00% |
| Don Leonard | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 20.00% |
| Brennan Barrington | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Don Leonard | $1,329,844 | $1,232,137 | $13,010 | $321,869 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Mike Carey | $4,184,981 | $3,975,933 | - | $173,470 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
