ForecastLast updated Oct 27, 1:52 PM
Patrick Harrigan*
Ashley Bell
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Pat Harrigan | 52.00% |
| Ashley Bell | 37.00% |
| Other | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ashley Bell | $147,720 | $135,901 | $57 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Patrick Harrigan | $1,318,233 | $908,096 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
