Nick Langworthy*
Aaron Gies
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Langworthy | 52.00% |
| Aaron Gies | 35.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Langworthy | 54.00% |
| Aaron Gies | 33.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Gies | $678,484 | $618,262 | $150 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Nick Langworthy | $2,675,793 | $1,775,424 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
