Cait Conley
Michael Lawler*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cait Conley | 48.24% |
| Michael Lawler | 45.52% |
| Other Option | 6.24% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Michael Lawler | 50.00% |
| Cait Conley | 47.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cait Conley | 47.90% |
| Michael Lawler | 45.60% |
| Other Option | 6.50% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cait Conley | $10,706,692 | $9,758,153 | $1,767,617 | $1,532,952 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
