Melanie Stansbury*
Ndidiamaka Okpareke
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Melanie Stansbury | 53.00% |
| Ndidiamaka Okpareke | 35.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Melanie Stansbury | $1,721,315 | $1,556,278 | $63 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Ndidiamaka Okpareke | $174,529 | $116,984 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
