Analilia Mejia*
Joe Hathaway
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Analilia Mejia | 53.00% |
| Joe Hathaway | 36.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe Hathaway | $837,601 | $795,428 | $183,000 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Analilia Mejia | $2,229,339 | $2,113,872 | $482,819 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
