Mike Flood*
Chris Backemeyer
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Flood | 46.00% |
| Chris Backemeyer | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chris Backemeyer | 49.00% |
| Mike Flood | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Flood | 45.00% |
| Chris Backemeyer | 38.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Backemeyer | $1,154,613 | $799,447 | $10 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Mike Flood | $2,770,861 | $2,131,738 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
