Brad Finstad*
Jake Johnson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | 43.00% |
| Brad Finstad | 43.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | 46.00% |
| Brad Finstad | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | 47.00% |
| Brad Finstad | 46.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Johnson | $3,507,568 | $2,946,475 | $41,623 | $8,000 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Brad Finstad | $2,765,870 | $2,223,657 | $42,286 | $19,818 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
