William Lawrence
Tom Barrett*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| William Lawrence | 53.00% |
| Tom Barrett | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| William Lawrence | 49.00% |
| Tom Barrett | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tom Barrett | 46.00% |
| Bridget Brink | 45.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Barrett | $8,238,468 | $7,221,105 | $233,035 | $2,078,101 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 William Lawrence | $4,160,041 | $3,531,075 | $830,883 | $957,088 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
