Derek Schmidt*
Don Coover
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Derek Schmidt | 49.00% |
| Don Coover | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Don Coover | $1,363,193 | $1,131,518 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Derek Schmidt | $1,772,989 | $1,353,904 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
