Victoria Spartz*
J.D. Ford
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Victoria Spartz | 45.00% |
| J.D. Ford | 41.80% |
| Other Option | 13.10% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Victoria Spartz | 48.00% |
| J.D. Ford | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Victoria Spartz | 48.00% |
| J.D. Ford | 46.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Victoria Spartz | $2,192,717 | $1,935,845 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 J.D. Ford | $1,410,737 | $1,086,209 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
