Jim Risch*
Todd Achilles
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 49.00% |
| Todd Achilles | 43.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 54.00% |
| Todd Achilles | 27.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
| Natalie Fleming | 3.00% |
| Matt Loesby | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jim Risch | 49.00% |
| Todd Achilles | 24.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
| Natalie Fleming | 3.00% |
| Matt Loesby | 2.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Todd Achilles | $1,921,132 | $1,733,606 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Jim Risch | $5,009,089 | $5,081,714 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
