Rich McCormick*
Tony Kozycki
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tony Kozycki | 47.00% |
| Rich McCormick | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rich McCormick | 46.00% |
| Tony Kozycki | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tony Kozycki | $922,117 | $429,686 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Rich McCormick | $2,250,503 | $1,612,453 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
