Brian Mast*
James Martin
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Mast | 49.00% |
| James Martin | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Mast | $5,097,732 | $4,490,347 | $98,400 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 James Martin | $821,779 | $770,880 | - | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
