Kathy Castor*
Mike Beltran
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kathy Castor | 45.60% |
| Mike Beltran | 44.73% |
| Other Option | 6.21% |
| Brian Lambert | 3.46% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kathy Castor | 48.00% |
| Mike Beltran | 43.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kathy Castor | 46.20% |
| Kevin Steele | 38.50% |
| Other Option | 15.30% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kathy Castor | $4,930,537 | $4,579,832 | $77,672 | $91,927 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Mike Beltran | $2,691,334 | $969,792 | $583,569 | $608,160 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
