Manny Rutinel
Gabe Evans*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gabe Evans | 47.60% |
| Manny Rutinel | 44.50% |
| Other Option | 7.90% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Gabriel Joseph Evans | $7,248,106 | $5,994,909 | $688,475 | $2,422,164 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Manny Rutinel | $9,459,070 | $8,456,428 | $3,545,176 | $1,120,618 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
