Eli Crane*
Jonathan Nez
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Nez | 50.00% |
| Eli Crane | 48.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 46.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eli Crane | 53.00% |
| Jonathan Nez | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jonathan Nez | $5,805,341 | $5,364,572 | $52,134 | $111,229 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Eli Crane | $11,904,946 | $10,873,254 | $589,231 | $884,346 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
