Michael Baumgartner is safe to win Washington's 5th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Michael Baumgartner

95%

Probability

Carmela Conroy

Probability

Safe Republican

PVIR+8

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+12

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Carmela Conroy	$604,596	$591,454	$61,377	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Washington US House 5

Watchlist

Social Media

Michael Baumgartner 95%

Michael Baumgartner is safe to win Washington's 5th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data