Virginia's 2nd District leans in favor of Jen Kiggans

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Jen Kiggans*

66%

Probability

Missy Cotter Smasal

34%

Probability

Lean Republican

PVIR+2

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+3

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 37% fundamentals and 63% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals37%

Polls63%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Missy Cotter	$3,250,763	$3,237,816	$713,936	$3,179,649	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Virginia US House 2

Watchlist

Social Media

Jen Kiggans* 66%

Virginia's 2nd District leans in favor of Jen Kiggans

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data