Henry Cuellar is likely to win Texas's 28th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Henry Cuellar*

89%

Probability

Jay Furman

11%

Probability

Likely Democratic

PVID+5

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+9

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Henry Cuellar	$2,492,809	$2,489,675	-$15,043	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Texas US House 28

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Social Media

Henry Cuellar* 89%

Henry Cuellar is likely to win Texas's 28th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data