Donald J. Trump is likely to win Texas's 40 electoral votes

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Donald J. Trump

90%

Probability

Kamala Harris

10%

Probability

Likely Republican

PVIR+4

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+9

Electoral Votes40

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 19% fundamentals and 81% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals19%

Polls81%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

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Donald J. Trump 90%

Donald J. Trump is likely to win Texas's 40 electoral votes

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot