Pennsylvania's 10th District leans in favor of Janelle Stelson

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Janelle Stelson

67%

Probability

Scott Perry*

33%

Probability

Lean Democratic

Potential Flip

PVIR+4

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+3

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 33% fundamentals and 67% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals33%

Polls67%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Scott Perry	$4,528,661	$4,619,860	$921,897	$5,618,093	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Pennsylvania US House 10

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Janelle Stelson 67%

Pennsylvania's 10th District leans in favor of Janelle Stelson

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data