Elise Stefanik is safe to win New York's 21st District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Elise Stefanik*

>99%

Probability

Paula Collins

<1%

Probability

Safe Republican

PVIR+8

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+24

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Elise Stefanik	$15,467,578	$7,636,449	-	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New York US House 21

Watchlist

Social Media

Elise Stefanik* >99%

Elise Stefanik is safe to win New York's 21st District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data