Josh Riley is narrowly favored to win New York's 19th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Josh Riley

60%

Probability

Marc Molinaro*

40%

Probability

Toss Up

Potential Flip

PVIEVEN

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+2

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 41% fundamentals and 59% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals41%

Polls59%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Josh Riley	$9,848,776	$9,797,483	$5,518,357	$11,660,943	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New York US House 19

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Social Media

Josh Riley 60%

Josh Riley is narrowly favored to win New York's 19th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data