Michael Lawler is narrowly favored to win New York's 17th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Michael Lawler*

59%

Probability

Mondaire Jones

41%

Probability

Toss Up

PVID+5

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+1

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 30% fundamentals and 70% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals30%

Polls70%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Michael Lawler	$8,387,802	$8,256,895	$3,391,234	$7,805,028	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New York US House 17

Watchlist

Social Media

Michael Lawler* 59%

Michael Lawler is narrowly favored to win New York's 17th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data