Martin Heinrich is likely to win New Mexico

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Martin Heinrich*

88%

Probability

Nella Domenici

12%

Probability

Likely Democratic

PVID+4

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+8

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 21% fundamentals and 79% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals21%

Polls79%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Nella Domenici	$7,013,192	$6,941,535	$30,522	$1,575,786	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

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2024 New Mexico US Senate

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Martin Heinrich* 88%

Martin Heinrich is likely to win New Mexico

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data