Gabriel Vasquez is likely to win New Mexico's 2nd District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Gabriel Vasquez*

80%

Probability

Yvette Herrell

20%

Probability

Likely Democratic

PVID+3

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+6

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 47% fundamentals and 53% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals47%

Polls53%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Gabriel Vasquez	$7,040,626	$7,024,318	$470,979	$6,208,528	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New Mexico US House 2

Watchlist

Social Media

Gabriel Vasquez* 80%

Gabriel Vasquez is likely to win New Mexico's 2nd District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data