Forecasted Win Probability
Melanie Stansbury*
Steve Jones
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 55% fundamentals and 45% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | |||
Republican | |||
| Democrat | |||
 | |||
