Josh Gottheimer is safe to win New Jersey's 5th District

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Josh Gottheimer*

96%

Probability

Mary Jo Guinchard

Probability

Safe Democratic

PVID+5

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+12

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 100% fundamentals. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Mary Guinchard	$330,121	$328,206	$1,670	-	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 New Jersey US House 5

Watchlist

Social Media

Josh Gottheimer* 96%

Josh Gottheimer is safe to win New Jersey's 5th District

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data