Nebraska's 2nd District leans in favor of Tony Vargas

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Tony Vargas

68%

Probability

Don Bacon*

32%

Probability

Lean Democratic

Potential Flip

PVIR+1

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginD+3

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 25% fundamentals and 75% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals25%

Polls75%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Donald Bacon	$6,358,739	$6,174,541	$3,844,316	$7,248,352	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Nebraska US House 2

Watchlist

Social Media

Tony Vargas 68%

Nebraska's 2nd District leans in favor of Tony Vargas

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data