Tim Sheehy is likely to win Montana

Last updated Nov 4, 12:00 AM

Tim Sheehy

83%

Probability

Jon Tester*

17%

Probability

Likely Republican

Potential Flip

PVIR+10

Generic BallotD+8.1

Projected MarginR+6

Trend—

Forecast Components

Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 20% fundamentals and 80% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.

Forecast Breakdown

Fundamentals20%

Polls80%

Generic Congressional Ballot

If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?

Oct 27, 7:45 PM EDTNationalLV, RV, Adults

Candidate	Average	1W	1M
Democrat	50.90%	+0.3%	+2.4%
Republican	42.80%	+0.3%	+2.2%
Democrat +8.1%
Democrat +8.1%

FEC Data

How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Outside Support	Outside Oppose	Report	Date
Tim Sheehy	$30,015,786	$28,626,778	$18,563,409	$63,515,535	YEAR-END	12/31/2024

DDHQ Analytics

Markets

2024 Montana US Senate

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Tim Sheehy 83%

Tim Sheehy is likely to win Montana

Forecast Components

Generic Congressional Ballot

FEC Data